The war between Ukraine and Russia may not be Russia’s influence
Will there ever be a war between Russia and Ukraine?I think so.1. The domestic economic situation is not particularly good, relying on the export of oil, natural gas, manufacturing and consumption. In 2021, Russia’s economy grew by 4.6%, reversing the decline of negative economic growth in 2020, and growing by 1.8% on the basis of 2019.In other words, it has recovered to the level of 2019.In fact, Russia’s economic problems are still relatively big, under the western sanctions, the economy continues to decline for years, life is not easy.2, the domestic political situation is stable, but Russia after the collapse of the Soviet union had a big Bob privatization, emerged a large number of resources, the oligarchs, after Mr Putin came to power, and these people after its social stability problem is solved, but economic growth fell, the economic growth.The national bourgeoisie at home wants the powerful Putin to step down, Russia’s internal leading party, the public and western agents are ready to move, and the international NATO continues to expand eastward, suppress, and endanger Russia’s survival.Putin has been in power for many years, whether he can solve a series of domestic political problems, ensure the stability of Russia’s domestic economy, I am afraid it is a problem.3. Russia’s military equipment is aging seriously. Although Russia has explored the systematic construction of its military and updated a large number of weapons and equipment in recent years, it is an indisputable fact that Russia lags behind the West on the whole.The readiness to threaten nuclear weapons also shows that Russia has few good cards to play with conventional weapons.From the heart, Russia still hopes to pull the majority of western countries, develop the economy, solve people’s livelihood problems.There is no time for a showdown.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO violated its commitments and continued to expand eastward.In 2017, NATO rotation forces began stationing in Lithuania and two other Baltic states.Since 2019, the United States has deployed about 500 rotating troops and equipment to Lithuania.In 2021, the United States, Britain and Canada all sent so-called military advisers to Ukraine.The United States continues to fan the flames around the world to solve its own domestic problems.French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin meet: German Chancellor Scholz will go to Russia to meet With Putin: US President Joe Biden constantly bullied Putin to make concessions; British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also constantly hyped up the Russia-Ukraine issue:The current situation is that European powers such as France, Germany and Italy are trying to cool down the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, constantly mediating, but the United States and Britain are constantly crying Wolf, hoping that Europe and Russia will engage in a conventional war to solve their domestic problems.So will the EU countries fight a conventional war with Russia?Pulling the chestnuts out of the fire for the US and UK?I don’t think so.If America and Russia were to go to war, it would be possible for Europe to stand by, shout and watch from the sidelines, and even take advantage of Russia’s defeat.But the EU is not so foolish as to put itself on the front line and fight Russia directly while America and Britain watch from the sidelines.3, uncontrollable Ukrainian nationalist Ukrainian President Zelensky himself denied that Russia and Ukraine are about to start a war, pointing out that the Us media hyped the russia-Ukraine war is funny, he asked the US to provide 100% intelligence sources, no one in the US to listen to him.The point is that Ukraine is already sitting on a powder keg. One is the country’s fearsome nationalists, who are making trouble in eastern Ukraine every day, shelling today, drone bombing tomorrow, sniping civilians the next day.I remember chairman MAO in the face of the boundary of the tense situation in China and India said so a words: “some of our comrades played decades of war, but also do not understand a word of at least: both sides of the border soldiers day and night nose to nose stood there, both with a gun in his hand, a trigger, the bullet would have killed people, how to avoid conflict?”How can things calm down in that part of Donbas where Ukrainian troops are massing, provoking, shelling, bombing every day?Besides, how does it end with American, British, Canadian, NATO troops, a large number of American spies stationed there, and a shell flying across the border hitting a Russian military camp?I’m afraid Russia won’t be able to do anything about it.