“Central mama” today continued “spicy powder” 300 billion yuan loose background bond market investment has three main lines

2022-05-29 0 By

21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Maisui guangzhou reported that the “Central mother” rain on the Lantern Festival, the People’s Bank of China announced on February 15, in order to maintain the banking system liquidity reasonable and abundant,On February 15, 2022, the People’s Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation (including the continuation of MLF expiry on February 18) and 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation, with the winning interest rate of 2.85% and 2.10% respectively.As 20 billion yuan of reverse repos mature today, 290 billion yuan of liquidity was actually released today.Meanwhile, 200 billion yuan MLF matures on Friday, February 18.On February 15th, short-end rates fell across the board: The Shanghai Interbank offered rate (Shibor) fell 5.9 basis points overnight to 1.807%;The seven-day Shibor rate fell 2.3 basis points to 2%.In addition, a month, two months, three months, six months, nine months of varieties also appear different degrees of decline.However, the repurchase of new pledged government bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was relatively active, with the one-day GC001 holding above 2 per cent in early trading and currently trading at around 2.04 per cent.Liquidity easing on the bond market to form a positive, this morning all the main varieties of national debt futures rose, including ten main bond contract rose 0.08%, at 100.6 yuan, five main bond contract at 101.92 yuan, up 0.05%, two main bond contract rose 0.01%, at 101.215 yuan.Bohai Securities analyst Ma Lina said that the total amount of social finance data in January exceeded market expectations, although the structure of social finance data is still weak, but can still see a series of measures to stabilize the central economy landing, January’s social finance data also seems to deepen the confidence of wider credit.Of course, other economic indicators in January and February will confirm whether the economy is stabilizing or the actual effect of wider credit.In the process of economic stabilization, monetary easing will not be absent, and further monetary easing policies can still be expected.Trading can be adjusted to buy, the next game wide currency operation, but it is expected to be difficult to break through the early low downward space.Guosheng Securities analyst Yang Yewei believes that the current monetary policy overall loose application, credit although there is more than expected growth, but the sustainability remains to be observed.The improvement trend of entity credit needs to be established, the risk preference of credit market is still low, differentiation continues, and top-down investment opportunities have not yet arrived.At the same time, at present, the valuation differentiation of urban investment bond market evolves from inter-provincial differentiation to intra-provincial differentiation, and gradually reflects the regional fundamentals, approaching the rational investment state matching the return and risk. Strong regional urban investment bond has little room for sinking.Yang Yewei also said that the bottom – up of the three main line can grasp the credit investment opportunities.(1) Main line 1: Pay attention to the opportunity of credit sinking of urban investment bonds under the background of hidden debt clearance.Refinancing debt has become an important means to resolve the local debt crisis since the pilot replacement of hidden debt at the end of 2020. It is estimated that the replacement of hidden debt by refinancing debt may reach about 1 trillion yuan in 2022. Investors can pay proper attention to the investment opportunities of urban investment entities in the all-for-one hidden debt clearance area and heavy debt area.In terms of risks, the valuation risk of future urban investment cannot be ignored. The maturity and resale scale of urban investment bonds in 2022 are relatively large, which will restrain the growth of net financing to a certain extent and may gradually withdraw from the bond market. We need to guard against tail risks.Land transfer fees or become a disturbance of the city credit risk of the main factor.(2) Main line 2: Under the tone of steady growth, focus on the allocation opportunities of industrial bonds in upstream industries with limited supply.In terms of industrial debt, with the improvement of subsequent business conditions of enterprises, interest rate differentiates in different industries.Steel, coal, non-ferrous and other industries have been reduced to a historical low interest rate, can focus more on the boom track, mining steel plate.(3) Main line three: grasp the opportunity of insurance subordinated debt, strong guarantee city investment bond qualification sinking.The overall decline in bond market interest rates in 2021, coupled with rising credit risk, led to a concentration of investment style towards highly qualified players and continued to push down spreads in 2022.At present, insurance subordinated debt has a premium compared with bank secondary capital debt and securities subordinated debt. In particular, the spread of individual bonds with implied AA+ level and remaining maturity of 2-4 years is in a higher digit position, and there is a large space for pressure drop.Implied AA with remaining maturity of 6-8 years, implied AA+ with remaining maturity of 8-10 years, relatively large margin compensation space.In addition, the sinking of the qualification of strongly guaranteed URBAN investment bonds can be understood as the combination of “finance + urban investment” in a sense, which shows certain resilience when dealing with the credit fluctuations of guaranteed subjects, and also gives consideration to risks and benefits, which can also be given some attention.For more information, please download the 21 Finance APP