In the first month of 2022, local markets opened lower, with both supply and demand declining

2022-04-30 0 By

At the beginning of 2022, the national land market started to open at a low level under the influence of many factors, such as suspension of centralized land supply and repeated epidemic.The national land market transaction scale ushered in a cyclical decline, the first month transaction scale compared with the same period last year “halved”, the average transaction price fell to the lowest since 2019.In the first week after the Lunar New Year holiday, land markets in most cities were still not officially functioning, with both supply and transaction volumes at their lowest levels in nearly a year.Although the policy environment has been significantly improved recently, the transaction price of cities of all levels has ushered in a trend of decline in the same month. In addition to the recovery of the market in some cities, the land market in most cities is still cold, and the phenomenon of land auction is more serious.Under the pressure of debt repayment, real estate enterprises are in a state of no money to take land, and the cautious investment attitude in the short term is difficult to be substantially reversed. In addition, the acquisition opportunities increase this year, and the land market will be depressed in 2022.In January 2022, the supply and construction surface of the national land market fell periodically. CRIC statistics showed that the total construction area of the national operational land supply was only 94.85 million square meters in that month, down 39% from the previous month.Land supply was the lowest for a month since 2019.Under centralized land supply, the rhythm of land supply in many cities has changed, and the land supply in January is obviously lower than the previous period.Among the 22 key cities, only Beijing took the lead in releasing the announcement of the first batch of commercial residential land transfer in 2022. It is worth noting that in the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, Beijing further strengthened the sales expectation of existing houses, with 9 sites needing to compete for the sale of existing houses, a significant increase in proportion compared with the third batch in 2021.From the first week of the Spring Festival supply situation, the supply scale is still a big gap compared with the same period last year, the total land supply construction area of key monitoring cities is 4.47 million square meters.Affected by seasonal factors and phased “dissupply” of concentrated land supply, the transaction scale of the national land market in January significantly decreased from the previous month, and there was an obvious gap compared with the same period last year.According to CRIC statistics, the transaction floor area of operational land in the national land market was only 78.51 million square meters, down 84% from the previous month and 52% from the same period last year.Meanwhile, average land prices fell to 1,905 yuan per square meter, the first time they have fallen below 2,000 yuan per square meter since 2019.The main reason lies in the significant reduction of concentrated land supply cities and the significant decline in the proportion of high-priced and high-quality land.The average land price in cities of all levels is significantly lower, and the decline in third-tier and fourth-tier cities is relatively narrow. The average floor price this month reached 1511 yuan/square meter, down 8% from the previous month and only 13% from the same period last year.From the land transaction situation since the beginning of the year, the land market still continues to decline in 2021, local city investment platform company bottom is still the mainstream, in addition to Ningbo, Hangzhou and other certain heat, a number of cities continue to be cold.In the first month, the average premium rate of national land transaction was 4.0%, picking up slightly from the previous month, but the overall is still low.The performance of cities with different energy levels is slightly different. In addition to the premium rate of second-tier cities, the premium rate of first-tier and third-tier cities decreases on a month-on-month basis.Specifically, second-tier cities due to the third batch of concentrated land auction heat in Ningbo, the main transaction force, picked up significantly, boosting the overall premium rate up 3.2 percentage points month-on-month, to 5.6%;In first-tier cities, the premium rate drops to freezing point due to the fact that the transaction land is all commercial land;The premium rate of third – and fourth-tier cities also declined further, with an average premium rate of only 3.6%.In terms of weekly data, the average premium rate recovered to 8% in the first week after the Spring Festival, driven by the high premium transaction rate of many commercial offices in Shanghai and Hangzhou, which set a new high in the weekly premium transaction rate of key monitoring cities in 2022 in nearly a year.Housing enterprises, which still face great pressure of capital flow, are not willing to take land. In the first month of the New Year, the phenomenon of unsold auction has increased compared with the end of last year, with the rate of unsold auction rising to 24%.In terms of specific cities, most of the distributed auction lots are concentrated in cities where the property market is in an adjustment cycle, such as Dalian, Harbin, Jieyang, etc., and most of these lots contain homestead blocks. In Dalian, in January, all the five homestead plots planned to be sold in the main urban area were abandoned due to no bidding, and the land market was obviously cold.In the first round of soil taken or adjusted to meet again it is important to note that set for January 22 city land a formal MSC, further relax under the condition of transfer, ningbo become traditional clinch a deal the slack season to keep the heat in the city, not only 22 premium rate of more than hangzhou city took the first place, the third round of soil also appeared many complaints to peak lottery hot situation,The antecedent leadership of the property market and stable effect gradually appear.At present, many real estate enterprises are facing the situation that many land parcels may face losses, the market is not clear, after the sale of the project can not get money in the short term, the financing end is limited, so the housing enterprises’ willingness to fill positions or take land is reduced to the minimum, and they are still wait-and-see in the short term.Moreover, there will be a large number of acquisition and project cooperation opportunities in 2022, which will further reduce the enthusiasm for land acquisition, and the land transaction end is expected to pick up significantly in the first half of 2022.It is very important to focus on land auction in the first round of this year. If we make some adjustments to land prices and make concessions to profits so that enterprises can have reasonable profit margins, private enterprises will be attracted to enter and investment in real estate enterprises will also usher in structural recovery.Therefore, the first round of concentrated supply of land to restore market confidence is crucial.In fact, the stability of the land market is the premise of the gradual stability of the real estate market, and the repair of the investment of real estate enterprises still needs at least three months.Due to many factors such as the delay of centralized land supply and repeated outbreaks in China, the national land market began to open down at the beginning of 2022. Although the policy environment has been significantly improved recently, it still takes time for real estate investment to recover. The land market in most cities is still cold, and the phenomenon of land underauction is quite serious.In order to stabilize the market and reduce the phenomenon of floating auction, the land supply side may be further adjusted in the short term to boost the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to take land.It is worth noting that affordable rental housing became the key word in the real estate market in January, and the policy support from top to bottom was particularly significant, and the relevant land may usher in the transfer of profits.Considering that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed the annual preparation target of 2.4 million units of affordable rental housing, and the loans related to affordable rental housing are not included in the real estate loan concentration management, housing enterprises can focus on the development opportunities of relevant land in 2022.Article source: Ding Zu Yu comments on the property market